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Re-calibrating Deterrence: Iranian Threat Perceptions in a Shifting Regional Order
Iran’s threat perceptions, which centre the regime’s own survival, have been sharply triggered by Israel’s war in Gaza and the subsequent attacks on its soil. This has rendered its traditional forward defense strategy increasingly less viable amid the degradation of its long-time posture of regional deterrence. To safeguard its interests, Tehran is re-calibrating along two…
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The Fragility of Iranian Security
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran not only underscores profound vulnerabilities within Iranian intelligence but also could potentially mark a shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Likely orchestrated by Mossad, this operation exploited critical weaknesses in Iran’s Communications Intelligence (COMINT) and Signals Intelligence (SIGINT), revealing not just external penetrations but possibly…
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A Weaker Taliban After Three Years in Power
Is the Taliban as strong as it looks? The group continues to face several problems it is either unable or unwilling to solve. While seemingly secure in the short-term, it could threaten to undermine its hold on power in the coming years.
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Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and Solidarity with Palestine
Recently, there has been a surge of interest in Yemen following the Houthi military campaign attacking ships traversing the Red Sea. But why and how have their campaigns increased the groups popularity both regionally and beyond?
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Central Asia and the Conflict in Ukraine: Russia-Friendly Neutrality
Since the onset of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have adopted a neutral stance towards the conflict. Their leaders have carefully avoided passing value judgement on the war which Dushanbe, for one, still calls “an incident that occurred between the two states” …
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Yemen’s long road to peace
Omani-mediated peace talks between Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia marked a hopeful move towards finally ending the proxy war in Yemen. This was an expected step following the earlier Iranian-Saudi détente brokered by China. Since then, officials from both sides have met for several rounds of talks, the most recent in Riyadh this past…
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Taliban’s Water Claims Ignite Tensions with Neighbours
When the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, it raised concerns in neighbouring countries about their own security. The governments in most of the Central Asian countries, and in Iran were hostile toward the Taliban when the militant group ruled Afghanistan in the late 1990s. There are now other Islamic extremist groups…
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Indigenous – Palestinian solidarity networks challenging settler colonialism in Australia
Increasingly networks are forming between Indigenous and Palestinian groups through a shared experience of colonisation. In recent years, there has been a shift at the grassroots level in Australia in support of the Palestinian cause. Solidarity networks between the Palestinian diaspora and Indigenous communities are growing wider and deeper. This has charted a new course…
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Egypt: Projecting freedom against a record of repression
In November, Egypt’s Red Sea resort town of Sharm el Sheikh hosted the 27th annual Climate Change Conference of the Parties. When it does, if the glossy promotional material is any indication, it will do its best to appear open, free and progressive. But with an estimated 60-thousand political prisoners still behind bars, including activists,…
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Artificial Labour Markets in the Gulf
Recent Al advancements have dominated news headlines as the world debates how to integrate artificial intelligence into our lives and workplaces. Within the Middle East, these debates are particularly prominent in the Arab Gulf where governments are committing huge investments to AI. According to Qatar’s National Strategy for Artificial Intelligence, an AI-augmented workplace – whereby…
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China’s Growing Role in Middle East Diplomacy: Navigating Regional Tensions
China has historically pursued a restrained and economically focused presence in the Middle East, steering clear of direct involvement in conflicts and refraining from taking positions on contentious disputes. In this, Beijing has largely benefited from the security provisions offered by the United States, thus evading the security expenses and strategic challenges encountered by Washington.…
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