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The Assassination of Haniyeh and the Fragility of Iranian Security
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran not only underscores profound vulnerabilities within Iranian intelligence but also could potentially mark a shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Likely orchestrated by Mossad, this operation exploited critical weaknesses in Iran’s Communications Intelligence (COMINT) and Signals Intelligence (SIGINT), revealing not just external penetrations but possibly…
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The Ethio-Sudan boundary: what’s next?
Ethiopia and Sudan share a boundary of over 1,600 km, series of negotiations and treaties between the colonial powers of Britain and Italy with the Ethiopian government. The people of Ethiopia and Sudan have had good relations for generations, but the demarcation of the boundary has remained a bone of contention between them due to…
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Syrians in Lebanon: A Mobility Crisis
Covid-19 stopped the motion of many around the world. A drastic decline in airline passengers grounded planes. Cars used for commuting to work sat parked with nearly full gas tanks. Demand for public transit plummeted. But for some of the one and a half million Syrians living in Lebanon, the pandemic’s exacerbation of an already…
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Qatar-UAE as rivals in the Horn of Africa
One effect of the rift between Qatar and its GCC neighbours Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE has been the exportation of this division since 2017. Emirati and Saudi allies Eritrea, Comoros, Mauritania, and Senegal in the Red Sea severed diplomatic ties with Qatar at the beginning of the crisis, and cross-regional divisions only became…
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Security as strategy? Israeli Arab Gulf states alignment
A few months after the Abraham accords were signed between Israel, Bahrain and the UAE, the Pentagon announced the transfer of command oversight of Israel from the US European Command (EUCOM) to its key military command outpost in the Gulf, CENTCOM. While the transition may be seen to pave the way for an overt regional…
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Uzbekistan’s economic challenges under President Mirziyoyev
For 25 years after independence in 1991, Uzbekistan was ruled by the former First Secretary of the Uzbek Soviet Republic, Islam Karimov. Karimov’s rule was characterized by ruthless political leadership and gradual economic reform. While some commentators lauded the economic achievements under Karimov, a more common view was that the economy had underperformed in improving…
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Third restart? Kyrgyzstan’s latest ‘revolution’
Protesting parties were a diverse crowd, from the liberal Reforma, to the market-liberal BirBol, the liberal-socialist Ata-Meken, the conservative Mekenchil, the radical Chon Kazat, the religious Yiman Nuru, and others in between. The ideological leanings of Kyrgyz political parties tend to be mostly declarative and matters of convenience than of conviction, but still, their general…
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Iran in a Shifting US Foreign Policy
Following Biden’s election as President of the United States, many officials who served under the Obama administration returned to senior positions. With them, they brought familiar approaches to the same pressing issues which continue to plague the Middle East. Iran sees this as a golden opportunity for rapprochement with the U.S, but on its own…
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Covid-19 and Egypt’s Informal Economy
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For many Egyptians and policymakers alike, Egypt’s informal sector represents both a blessing and a curse. Through ease of entry, it provides employment for those shut out of the formal…
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Iran’s Continued Expansion in Southern Syria
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The Syrian regime forces besieged Daraa al-Balad area at the beginning of last August 2021, when the forces of the Iranian-backed Fourth Division brought military reinforcements to the area, and…
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Gulf Energy Set to Win in Climate Action
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Climate pressure is tilting the global oil business in favour of the giant state-owned oil companies in the Persian Gulf. As oil demand plateaus and starts to decline, these firms…
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Economics Driving China’s interest in Egypt
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On 30 June, a Chinese State Construction and Engineering Company (CSCEC) work crew lifted into place a steel skyway connecting two office buildings in the Central Business District (CBD) of…
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COVID-19 and Iraq’s Fractured Healthcare System
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In July of this year, a fire tore through the COVID-19 isolation ward of Iraq’s al-Hussein Teaching Hospital in the city of Nasiriyah. At least 64 people were killed and…
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Libya at a crossroads, again
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The current strategic and political situation in Libya seems almost unrecognizable from the perspective of just a year ago. For the first time in nearly a decade, Libya appears to…
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China as a new Gulf mediator?
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China’s relationship to the Gulf could be changing. Previously, it avoided conflict and risk, which helped it establish good diplomatic relations and expand its commercial ties in the region. That…
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Turkmenistan food crisis – a threat to regime stability?
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Turkmenistan has been facing an increasing crisis of food, primary products, and cash shortages. The crisis is a result of lower natural gas prices, Turkmenistan’s primary export, and a Chinese…
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Hope and risk in Qatar’s investment environment
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Launched in June 2017, the so-called ‘blockade’ of Qatar by the ‘Anti-Terror Quartet’—comprising Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Egypt—appeared to finally come to an end on 5…
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Looking south: Central Asia and Afghanistan
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After nearly two decades, the current manifestation of conflict in Afghanistan may be coming to an end. The United States and representatives of the Taliban signed an agreement in February…
