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Shifting Political Dynamics in Lebanon
Iran’s forward defense strategy, coupled with strategic miscalculations, has led to a retrenchment of its role in Lebanon’s domestic politics; a curtailment which in turn has reduced Hezbollah’s power base. This weakening has resulted in a marked shift in the balance of power, tilting deterrence in favor of Israel, the US, and Hezbollah’s opponents within…
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China and Iran: Unrecognised Potential and Opportunities
Iran presents important opportunities for China’s regional and continental ambitions. It has one of the world’s largest proven reserves of oil and natural gas which is important to the famously energy insecure Chinese economy. Iran also occupies a geographic region between the Caspian Sea and the Persian Gulf, a key point in the old Silk…
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How Iraq became Iran’s cash cow
With the October 2021 Iraqi Parliamentary elections recording the lowest ever voter turnout in post-2003 Iraq, there is little doubt that Iraq’s yet-to-be-announced next government already faces a legitimacy crisis. Amid the problems that Iraq faces in overcoming its domestic challenges, there is a massive driver of its cyclical political system in neighbouring Iran of…
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Kazakhstan unrest: implications for Australian interests
The abrupt and turbulent start of the year in Kazakhstan has engineered the conditions for a dual narrative to emerge. Firstly, the widespread violence and protests, coupled with Kazakhstan government’s botched handling of containing the violence demonstrated the fragility of the security conditions in Kazakhstan. This was made even more shocking by the apparent mistrust…
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Counter-Sectarianism in Lebanon at a Crossroads
On an early evening in late 2019, bells and sirens sounded throughout Beirut as thousands of Lebanese flooded the streets chanting, “down with the regime.” Simultaneously, buildings and blockades around the city were being spray-painted with calls for revolution alongside satirical caricatures lampooning the nation’s politicians. To many counter-sectarian revolutionaries, it seemed like the longstanding…
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Could Emirati hold on Socotra resolve conflict in Yemen?
The UAE’s strategic consolidation of the island of Socotra will not enhance the prospects for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Yemen. Whilst it may further complicate the process, it will not necessarily stymie efforts either. However, what is likely to stymie prospects is the growing rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and…
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COVID-19 and Female Labour Force Participation in Jordan
COVID-19 has exacerbated the challenges of female labour participation in Jordan. Female social involvement has significantly decreased by virtue of caring for their children and other familial responsibilities – especially since kindergartens were one of the first common areas to be closed during quarantine. Recent research has concluded that there is a noticeable low rate…
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Covid-19 and Egypt’s Informal Economy
For many Egyptians and policymakers alike, Egypt’s informal sector represents both a blessing and a curse. Through ease of entry, it provides employment for those shut out of the formal sector, but it is also characterised by poor working conditions and weak worker protections. The Egyptian government has shown great ambivalence towards the sector, sometimes trying…
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Iran’s Continued Expansion in Southern Syria
The Syrian regime forces besieged Daraa al-Balad area at the beginning of last August 2021, when the forces of the Iranian-backed Fourth Division brought military reinforcements to the area, and the Military Security Branch set up several checkpoints at the entrances and exits of the area, while closing the rest of the roads. Later, military…
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Gulf Energy Set to Win in Climate Action
Climate pressure is tilting the global oil business in favour of the giant state-owned oil companies in the Persian Gulf. As oil demand plateaus and starts to decline, these firms have market advantages that will allow them to dominate shareholder-owned oil companies which face a tougher regulatory and price environment. This dichotomy is emerging as…
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Economics Driving China’s interest in Egypt
On 30 June, a Chinese State Construction and Engineering Company (CSCEC) work crew lifted into place a steel skyway connecting two office buildings in the Central Business District (CBD) of Egypt’s New Administrative Capital – an engineering feat that serves as a fitting metaphor for the two countries’ rapidly developing commercial relationship. In a 27…
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